Sunday 22 January 2012

The Turning of the Tides




There is often merit in considering our insignificance in the universe. Each individual life is but a speck of fleeting flame in the eternal slumber of the universe.

More relevantly one may also consider the insignificance of a single human life in the span of time that is and will be occupied by humanity. A greater share, to be sure, than that occupied in the vast universe, but again showing how small we are.

A final condensation of consideration occurs if one considers the weight of a single human life at a specific point in time, or perhaps a brief part of our span in life.

This last view is the most relevant in considering human action in the face of the world.

Now it must be pointed out that in this final contemplation that there are some men who have more influence on our little planet than others.

Most of us however in our individual capacity will have little effect on the tide of history, and only inasmuch as we as a larger group act in concert can we sway the tides.



I bring this up, not to belittle our worth, but to point out that the choices we make, as individuals are largely inconsequential excepting to our own fates.

In this respect, fortune favours those most who can glimpse which way the tide is flowing, by observing the choices of those few, those giants, whose actions hold much greater power than the average man, and act in anticipation thereof, or concert therein.

Today I wish to share with you that as regards the future of our economic system, the giants have already made a choice. Their choice was made a long time ago and they have acted upon the inevitability of the tides that change.

You see, gold is once again going to move to the center of our economic system. Most of it is already held in the hands of these giants and they are not letting go, until the tide turns. All they await at present is the inevitable shifting of the moon (the passage of time) which will herald a turn in the tides.

Know this, your choice in the regard does not matter. Whether you choose to buy some gold to protect your savings for the coming transition will not affect the coming of the tides.

It is my sincere wish that you also protect what little you have from the ravages of the super-storm that is coming, but, if you do not, do not think that the storm will not come.

Your choice makes little difference.

The point is a choice must be made. More wealth = more votes. Every dollar must choose, and the giants have chosen. Gold won.



Peace

The Fool




36 comments:

  1. Very well stated.

    The thing I face most is people stating that if everybody starts buying gold, it will become a self fulfilling prophecy.
    The economy would come to a halt.

    When I tell them, currency moves through assets.....and moves through gold to someone else, they find it hard to grasp.

    There is such a lack of knowledge......work to do!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks.

      Well, I would not argue their comment. It is true. What is also true however is if they do not buy gold, the prophesy will be fulfilled anyways. The point being that those with the most wealth/sway/votes have already chosen gold. Their piddling vote...even those of the combined masses, are not enough to turn the tide. Sink or swim people. Haha.

      Their confusion is easy to clear up. Simply follow the path the gold, and the money travels by way of example. Neither is destroyed by s swap.

      TF

      Delete
  2. Good post MF.
    To get a paperbug to buy gold, i think you have to break through their normalcy bias.You will be luck to do this in one attempt, no matter how good and sound the argument is.
    As you repeat the facts about buying gold, again and again, and again, on separate occasions, they slowly get used to them.And the arguments seem more normal.
    You could always cheat a bit as well , by lying.If you tell them friend x or workmate y have bought a few ounces, or better still, relative z has also bought.Then it will seem even more normal, thus helping to break down the biggest barrier OMHO.

    Regards
    Ozzy

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey Ozzy

      I'm trying darnit. This is by no means my first attempt. More the latest salvo in a long war. xD

      TF

      Delete
  3. Good article. That sure is a nice looking pile of gold :-)

    I've been thinking a lot about what it will be like for us shrimps to be able to buy gold the closer we get to the focal point. At some point there will be no gold out there to buy. And I wonder at what point will the coin shops just close down, or change to buy only shops.

    I get ads from apmex every other day, deals on this coin or that. But I never get pitched by them to buy my gold. Makes me wonder if the normalcy bias also applies to the dealers. I know they are just middle men, but at some point they got to know when to hold. I suppose their awareness will first be reflected in larger premiums. But then again, part of me thinks it will turn on a dime, one day they are selling, the next they aren't.

    I'm going to buy some more gold tomorrow. Just in case.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Maybe it turns around the day that Joe Sixpack stops walking in to sell them his scraps, so they move from "how can I make a bit on Joe's gold so we can have steak again tomorrow?", to "Joe wants gold and I don't have any - how/where can I get some? Oh, mummy! What will we eat tomorrow?"

      Delete
    2. Hmm. There seems to be a misunderstanding here as regards gold dealers that I can clear up.

      Any dealer worth their salt( and I'm not talking about the fly-by-night operators here) only sell you gold if they know they can replace their stock. When buying any sufficient amount of gold, what you witness is them either phoning for a price, or going online. What actually happens is that they check the replacement value of that stock, and place an immediate order( if they are certain you are buying).

      That source will dry up only when they pick up the phone day and find their stock irreplaceable. Then they will suddenly not have any for sale, no matter what you see in their shop.

      TF

      Delete
    3. I don't think there was a misunderstanding. I know they are middlemen. And no, they do not get on the phone to replace the 1 or 2 oz of gold before I buy from them. They make there profit not on the increase and decrease of gold price, but on the margin.

      But I have also seen one particular dealer, refuse to sell when gold and silver dumped back in the fall, he was buying only. Just a personal observation.

      Delete
    4. Obviously my disclaimer of "any sufficient amount" was too subtle. :D

      I always value personal experience though. :)

      Delete
  4. Replies
    1. You mean the first which I shamelessly took from Jesse's Cafe Americain, or the gold porn?

      Most online gold porn tends to depress me as it makes my stash look like a piddling pile of junk.

      TF

      Delete
    2. Yes, the first.

      And another, yes - it IS a piddling pile of junk. :) LOL

      Delete
    3. Haha. Bastard. Poking fun at the poor saffer. :D

      Delete
  5. Hi MF,

    I continue here, because I think, that my comment does not fit and is not welcome at the freegold blog, but fits better to you headline:

    "We see the world not as it is, but as we are."

    During the discussion, have you noticed that normalcy bias: The good vs. the bad?
    The words fascism, dictatorship, communism... are so easily used, not noticing how the bad outcomes always evolved. Have you read the book "Lord of the flies" or "The Wave" or about the Milgram-Experiment? I think those paint a much better picture of humans than the great democrats, just thinking of themself to live in the most free great democracy in earth. Or as the great german philosopher Goethe said: The once thinking of themself to be free are the once most enslaved.
    I really wonder, why "freegolders" are capable to think out of the box, when it comes to the monetary system, but are so limited stepping out of the normalcy bias when it comes to social actions. The first post which made me wonder was when FOFOA pointed out that he was convinced that in the US he believes in to conviction of the people towards freedom (cant find the exact quote right now). How does that fit with the NDAA changes of the past years? No noticing which nation has caused the highest bodycount in history?
    He thinks that gold will flow? Hasnt he read about the liberty dollar story, I think a good example how "just" a democracy court can be?
    Oh and the worst post was the spiteful one about North Korea, only the justify FIAT money therefore beating the suffering korean people as a strawman, to prove what?

    See, I dont want to beat on the freegold followers, I just can not understand this limited view only focusing on paper tokens versus metal tokens, but completely forgetting what those tokens actually good for.
    Sorry to bother you, but somehow I really had to drop those lines.
    Greets, AD

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hello AD

      Hmm. I shall continue to call a spade a spade as is my wont.

      Let us start by adjusting your perceptions about me by stating that I am South African.

      Every one has bias.

      Personally I do not use those terms lightly. I use them knowing full well what are the underlying systems, perceptions, morality and philosophy.

      You must remember that your words are all I have to judge your perspectives by. Keep that in mind when reading further.

      To start with, calling the current system in the USA a democracy is a faux pass in my opinion. It is closer to a fascist dictatorship.

      The populace there, as it were, have little to do with those actions. Their education system has been dumbed down deliberately, they are controlled by the media and created 'social norms' and that wonderful tool of fear. In this regard they are following closely on the path of Nazi Germany (replacing Jews with the Islamic people here).

      I know of the injustices occurring there at present, including the liberty dollar story.

      Your view is limited by being stuck in the current paradigm. It is absurd to suggest that the gold will flow in the system as we know it. Though to be fair FOFOA is not suggesting this.

      Once we experience the paradigm shift it would be absurd to suggest that the gold would not flow(after perhaps some initial chaos, and last minute desperate moves).

      I do not want to beat on you either, but I am just sharing what I perceive of your perceptions and normalcy bias.

      You would do well to go read Blondie's blog ( The Flow of Value) and trying to grok it deeply. (He hasn't got that many posts, but each of them are at great depth, which makes up for their lack of length).

      None of those who truly understand Freegold (and to be honest it doesn't seem to be very many, despite FOFOA's large following) has a view limited to paper and gold tokens, with exclusion of that they represent.

      Moneyness(after long and hard study)(a recent post by FOFOA) may reveal to you the deeper meaning of these tokens exactly, and what we refer when talking about them.

      Remember that words are a mere representation of the underlying conceptual constructs and their underlying paradigm when used in context.

      No bother. I do not mind helping my fellow travelers on the gold trail when they get stuck, if I am able.

      Peace

      TF

      Delete
  6. AD,

    I disagree. You should post your doubts on FOFOA.

    ReplyDelete
  7. FOFOA doesn't advocate Freegold as the most just solution, he merely reports where we are going.

    As Motley states above, you can point your finger and say how this may be suboptmimal for humankind at large, but that isn't going to change one thing about the outcome for humankind at large - only for you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I guess that is the question all of us are trying to figure out: Where are we going.
      Do all streets lead to Freegold necessarily? Really all? How long is that trail? And what's on that way (happening)? Or are we just biased in what we want to see, waiting for Godot? On the other hand, its okay the be right for the wrong reasons ;)

      I personally think, that FOFOA does not take those questions that much into consideration, but rather only focuses on explaining the other side "after the transition" (IMHO like he wants to see it).
      e.g. A post about the legal background of the liberty dollar story would have been great, but...?

      And as MF is suggesting: Yes, I know that my view might be stuck in current paradigm, I just wounder what happens to the real world when todays current paradigm breaks (as I said, wouldnt be a pretty site, something some shrimps are not aware of).

      Greets, AD

      P.S.
      What I also was wondering, but AFAIR FOFOA never answered: What is the exact background, that "giants" mint gold coins? Some of these are allowed to be melted down, some are not. Some have a face value some dont... or is it just a retail business thing? I really would like to understand the real story behind those coins, would help a shrimp to know what's the next purchase: Rather 1kg or 30Krüger....

      Delete
    2. Personally,i dont worry too much whether or not FOFOA s right about Freegold happening, because i cant do bugger all about it.I TRY not to worry about things beond my controle(in vain sometimes).
      The alternative to Freegold is, IMHO going to be a bad,bad world.Full on fascism or war or both.I can do nothing to protect myself here and now for such a future so,even if Freegold has a small chance of happening, it still makes sense to prepare for it.
      AD.You do seem to be stuck in this paradigm.Imagine yourself in Russia before communism, saying X cant happen because nobodys talking about or doing X now.Then theres a revolution and loads of shit happens and suddenly X is cool and everyones doing it.
      People react and adapt to to the new enviroment .The ones that dont,and they may be many,get a one way ticket to siberia(or maybe a FEMA camp equivalent).

      Regards
      Ozzy

      Delete
    3. Hiya AD

      Hmm.

      FreeGold is conditional on us not having a complete system breakdown. This is the thing that Europe feared. This is why they spent 40 years setting up the euro, of which the last 20-30 they spent propping up the dollar. A little credit where credit is due is apt I would think. I have privately made the argument to FOFOA that their preparations were unnecessary; but having been made they have their uses. FOFOA does explore a good argument in The Debtors and the Savers, as to why we are unlikely to see war.

      If we work on the assumption that we are not going to see a Mad Max type of world( which I feel is a very reasonable one), then some pertinent observations remain.

      One is that, inevitably, the US$ will be repudiated, at some point, as a store of value by the ROW. I hope thusfar we are in agreement at least, given my basic assumptions. The question then is, what will replace it as store of value. Due to the US$ being the backbone of the current system, a loss of confidence in it's ability to store value(hyperinflation) will affect the confidence in all other paper currencies, since it is unarguably king of the hill in this regard.

      This means that it unlikely people/giants/other CB's/etc will trust another paper currency to fill that role. SDR's have been mentioned but they are simply a construct of various paper currencies. Once those start to lose value/confidence, so will the constructed SDR. The euro does have some advantage here due to it's MTM concept in that it can direct it's hyperinflation into gold.

      Gold outshines here as THE thing that people will run to to store value, when confidence is lost in paper currencies, the reasons being many and well covered by FOFOA.

      So yes, if we assume the world is not totally destroyed, then FreeGold is inevitable. It is simply the recognition of gold taking a place at the center stage of our world economy, due to it's supreme suitability in this regard.

      That being that...I do not understand your P.S. Please expand upon your question. It makes no sense to me. How are giants and coin minting connected in your mind? I have no such connections.

      Peace

      TF

      Delete
  8. The SDR is an interesting animal. Its creation was, IMO, a buffer between national currencies and gold. If the SDR were to find a prominent role as unit of account, it could lead very nicely to a single digital medium of exchange. And of course gold could provide store of value, and you have a very nice little global currency.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In short : I expect the SDR to die along with the US$. The SDR is a strange kind of alchemy, similar to Frankenstein, a adding to together of many parts to try and form a whole, which has turned out to be a monster. ;)

      Delete
  9. Hi MF,

    well, I guess we will see, whats happening to the $. BTW have you noticed that once a country steps away from the dollar, it has pretty good chances to find itself on the "axis of evil", especially when it is an oil producer?

    Anyway, I got another thesis: "The Euro has to be destroyed before the dollar, in order to have a chance of freegold evolving". The Euro is a bunch of crap: It does not allow Gold to flow to balance the currency flows inside the EU, or to have a currency adjustment like in the EMS before. The european bond markets are a minor problem, what FOFOA never looked at, is are the TARGET2 account (im)balances and with it is an self-accelaration imbalance, with the PIGS being driven more and more into depression (the economist Hans-Werner Sinn made some awesome presentations of that). You should look at the social and economy consequences in the PIGS and the rising anger in the northern euro countries. Isnt it cute: The euro indotrinated politicians told us the "Euro will prevent war", thats their favorite excuse, but in Europe we have the exact opposite: all the people walk with anger and "their fist in the pocket".

    As MrPinnion said: dont bother with stuff out of your own control, I just make sure that I am paid. For me this is besides gold as well silver, pladium, platinum, farmland and stocks, anything that does not have Euro printed on and is out of reach of the socialist government is fine (I know, farmland is a problem and stocks as well thats why I diversify only little in those).

    And this was also reason for the "P.S.":
    What is the real idea already today to have legal tender gold coins? "Tradition" LOL? How do those differ from a gold bar in terms of a "freegold world" (transition)? Some are minted with face values, some are not allowed to be melted down, some are issued by authorised private mints, some are minted by government treasury. What is the legal (real) background to mint those at all? What is the "Freegold" background or future view? What are the results of the different laws regarding these legal tender in terms of capital controls? In that context, what are the pros and cons to have those (instead of bars).
    e.g. I have a 500Euro face value gold coin, weighing 12g, I paid 500Euro. But I do have also a 100Euro gold coin, weighing 31g, and paid ~1000Euro. I also have Marples, but these are prohibitted to be melted down. How about the Krügerrands? You see my point?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi AD

      Thank you for asking more interesting questions.

      I can answer you 'PS' now. Your former question however, after superficial examination, I am not yet able to answer. Allow me some time to consider the matter more deeply.

      This is a complex question. In the current paradigm legal tender coins sometimes have the advantage of being exempt from CGT, e.g. British Sovereigns in the UK. The legal background is simply that only the state may issue coins which are deemed to be legal tender, or they may if they so choose, delegate the minting to one or a few private companies. So, in the present paradigm, some legal tender coins have some tax advantages.

      In the FreeGold paradigm, it is agreed that No form of gold will have CGT or any other taxes imposed on it. Hence all gold is 'equal' under Freegold. The only criterion in private trade shall be, what is the amount of gold contained in this coin/bar/ring/etc. Since the flow of gold will not be restricted, I imagine that the laws regarding the melting of certain coins will be phased out, but even if this were not the case it would not matter.

      The Krugerrand is perhaps the best example of what coins will be like under a FreeGold paradigm. No restrictions on melting, no face value...simply a statement regarding gold content.

      Peace

      TF

      Delete
    2. Ps. Ohh, and of course I have noticed that stepping away from the dollar puts one on the "axis of evil" according to the USA. How could I not? :P

      Delete
  10. Hi MF,
    thank you for your effort to help me on that one. But actually if you really read my questions about coins, not really the main issue has been adressed at all: Why are "they" minting coins anyway? Bullion bars are as good.... So if (LBMA) bullion bars would do the job, why bother with coins? And why mainly so much gold coins, if it is just for "collectors" lots of other metals would be also fine.
    And also you only focus on a functioning freegold environment. Well, in the meantime would be good to know whats actually the secret or difference in that LBMA bullion bars versus coins in todays world (I know, taxes, but whats about the WHY)
    Thanks, AD

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi AD

      There is no 'secret'. Why mint coins when bars are just as good? Psychology, tradition (and taxes). People are more likely to buy gold coins than bars...so If they wanna sell some, and since form does not matter, coins are better.

      Please do note my new post that is up specifically to answer your first query.

      TF

      Delete
    2. For example, in the European Union the trading of recognised gold coins and bullion products are free of VAT

      (Wiki)

      Delete
    3. AD (elsewhere): "And since I know when two wolves vote over a sheep whats for diner, it might be me."

      Does this observation of yours perhaps have a relationship to this topic you raised above, regarding coins/bars?

      Will my local wolves vote to eat a large part of me if my coins are not the "right ones" when I need to sell them?

      Delete
    4. yes, in a certain way, that was also related to that.
      Because TheFools answer, "there is no secret, just accidental tradition for some shiny stuff, get the best bang for your buck for Freegold" does not convince me at all, absolutely not. It makes no sence, especially what you mentioned about the recognised coins.
      Greets, AD

      P.S.
      e.g. Isnt it also amazing, that (at least in Germany), the shops almost never ever run out of coins, but once in a while run out of bullion bars?

      Delete
    5. Mmm, are you suggesting maybe there is a nice rate of churn on the "recognised coins", but the bars (and maybe "unrecognised coins"?) don't tend to come in all that often?

      Delete
    6. hell, I dont know. I'm not speculating just putting it up for discussion. I really really dont know. Fact: THIS IS NOT ACCIDENTIALLY. The consequences? Therefore in gold I am strictly diversifying between bars and the general different types coins: Marple, Krüger, Philis & Eagle.

      Thats why I am so keen on those answers. And almost all of FOFOAs posts are so great to help you step out of the box, to take a new view at a broader picture. That's why I started questioning.

      Delete
    7. Way I figure it, doesn't hurt to stick to only officially recognized (in my zone) legal tender, CGT exempt, items. There is a reason for everything.

      What's the worst that could happen? It was not an advantage after all. No biggie. Or perhaps a stitch in time saves ... perhaps 40% ...(?)

      Maples, krugs, eagles... not on list for you in Germany? Maybe phils are better going forward? Different strokes for different folks.

      Delete
  11. Hi,

    inside Germany we don't have any capital gain taxes or VAT on gold at all anyway, if hold privately for longer than one year :P
    About the "recognized coins" list: This list exists for the EU as well, but AFAIR this concerns import&export duties and all the coins I mentioned are covered.
    But who says, that this may not be altered? And to understand how it might be altered, it would be interesting to know whats the deal about those coins in the first place.

    ReplyDelete